InPost: The Right Thesis, The Wrong Ending

A painful truth of small-cap investing: sometimes the market never gives you the rerating - a strategic buyer does.

InPost has agreed to a recommended all-cash public offer at €15.60 per share (cum dividend), valuing the company at approximately €7.8bn. The buyer is a consortium led by FedEx and Advent International, alongside A&R (the investment vehicle of Rafał Brzoska) and PPF Group.

Portfolio action: We are removing InPost from our 2026 Portfolio and booking the position.

And yes emotionally, this one stings.

Because InPost was exactly the kind of rare European growth asset you want to own for years: a scaled network, improving unit economics, and a runway that could have produced a true public-market compounding story. Instead, it gets “solved” via takeout at a price that’s still below the IPO reference (IPO price was €16.00 per share).

So why sell if we think it’s a great business? Because once a company enters a takeover process, the investment stops being “quality compounding” and becomes “deal math.”

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🧠 The key point: the return profile changed overnight

Before the announcement, our upside case was open-ended:

• more lockers, more density,

• better utilization,

• stronger network effects,

• improving profitability,

• and eventually, a rerating.

After the announcement, the upside is capped by the offer price. What matters now is:

• the spread to €15.60,

• the time to closing,

The press release lays out a long timetable: the offer memorandum is expected in Q2 2026, and the transaction is expected to close in H2 2026. And importantly, completion is subject to conditions, including a minimum acceptance level of at least 80% plus regulatory clearances and other customary conditions.

That is not our game. Our 2026 Portfolio is built for mispriced compounding, not for sitting in a long-dated tender process where your return becomes spread + calendar time.

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Why this feels frustrating

Let’s call it what it is: it’s disappointing to lose a potential multibagger candidate at a price that doesn’t feel like “full value.”

Two facts make that feeling completely rational:

1. The offer is below the IPO price.
   InPost listed at €16.00 in January 2021, and the takeout is €15.60.
   That doesn’t automatically mean the offer is “cheap” (IPO prices are often set in optimistic regimes), but it does mean the public market never fully rewarded the long-duration thesis.

2. Strategic buyers tend to buy after multiple compression.
   The consortium is explicitly positioning this as a way to accelerate European out-of-home delivery growth, expand locker footprint, deepen consumer-centric digital solutions, and unlock growth with long-term capital behind it.
   In plain English: they believe this asset is more valuable under private ownership than the public market was willing to price.

This is the uncomfortable reality in European small caps: sometimes the public-market rerating never comes and the value gets crystallized by a strategic/private buyer instead.

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Portfolio impact:

As of our latest portfolio snapshot, the position showed:

• Allocation: ~10.49%

• Unrealized gain: +46.53% (about +$410 on a ~$1,291 position value)

That’s exactly the profile we aim for: we owned the right asset, the market eventually recognized its strategic value, and the outcome is being monetized.

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What happens next if you still hold?

Mechanically, the press release outlines the pathway:

• The consortium intends to launch a public offer with €15.60 cash per tendered share.

• The offer has a minimum acceptance of 80%.

• If they end up with 80% to <95%, there’s a post-closing structure described (demerger/liquidation pathway).

• If they reach ≥95%, they can initiate a statutory squeeze-out process.

Your broker will handle the tender mechanics once the offer is live (after the offer memorandum is published). The key is: from here, the stock’s behavior will be driven far more by deal updates than by quarterly business fundamentals.

I’ll be blunt: I would have preferred to keep InPost public and let it compound. The network asset is real, the model is strategically valuable, and this kind of infrastructure can mature into extraordinary long-term returns.

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Disclaimer:

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the author’s opinions as of the date of publication. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. The author is not acting as your financial adviser and does not provide personalized investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should conduct your own research, verify all information independently, and consult qualified professionals regarding your individual circumstances before acting on any information contained herein. Investing involves substantial risk, including the risk of losing all or part of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any projections, forward-looking statements, targets, or estimates are not guaranteed and may change materially. Certain information may be obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The author and/or related parties may hold positions in the securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities at any time without notice. All investment decisions are made solely at your own risk.