While markets have been choppy, geopolitical noise has been relentless, and the SaaSpocalypse has dragged down most of the portfolio’s tech names, one holding has been quietly compounding in the background — posting some of the strongest price appreciation year-to-date of any position the Multibagger Model Portfolio currently holds.

It is not a US tech stock. It is not an AI infrastructure play. It is a Swedish installation company doing the physical work that the green transition requires.

Below is a full thesis update on the position where we stand, what Q4 2025 confirmed, what risks remain, and whether the thesis has changed.

🏗️ Position Spotlight: …

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One position is up +44% and I still think the re-rating is less than halfway done. Another is down -42% — and I’ll explain exactly why I’m not selling, and what would have to happen for me to change my mind. There’s also a position sitting at a -50% drawdown that I’m completely at peace with — and the reason why says a lot about how position sizing should actually work.

On the watchlist: one stock just crashed 60% in a single week on news that I think the market completely misread. The underlying business has $776M in cash, zero debt, and 70% repeat revenue. If my read is right, this could be the best entry point I’ve seen in months. I’ll tell Founding Members exactly what price level would trigger my entry.

The portfolio is sitting at 43% cash. That’s not an accident. That’s dry powder waiting for the right moment.

Full trade details and the live portfolio are Founding Member only, since access to the Multibagger Portfolio is exclusive to that tier.

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🔥 Most Interesting Positions This Week

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That instinct is rational. The space is full of commoditised, margin-thin businesses that get squeezed between Google on one side and The Trade Desk on the other. Most of them don’t survive. And the ones that do tend to be permanently cheap for a reason.

But every rule has an exception. And the exception here is a company that built something the rest of the market quietly depends on — the independent marketplace through which Disney, Netflix, Roku, Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery, and every other major streaming platform sell their advertising inventory to the world.

This company is not a middleman. It is the infrastructure.

And it is trading like it’s the former.

Three numbers before we go further:

+32% — CTV contribution growth ex-political in Q4 2025. Not a one-off: the acceleration began in Q3 and strengthened into year-end.

0.0× — Net leverage today. Down from 6.2× in 2021. The debt that buried this company’s fundamentals for four years is gone.

>30% — Free cash flow growth guided for 2026. Management is not guiding conservatively. They just repaid $205M in convertible notes from cash on hand.

The stock is trading near multi-year lows. It has been misclassified, misunderstood, and ignored. That is what creates the opportunity.

👉 Inside the Paid Tile: full company deep dive, business model breakdown, 100-Bagger criteria check, competitive moat analysis, the Google antitrust wildcard, full valuation table, Bull/Base/Bear scenarios, weighted expected return, and the KPIs we will watch.

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🏷 Company Reveal

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We are increasing our exposure to one of our German software holdings after another pullback, even though the operating picture remains strong. The business sits in a very attractive niche: it helps companies capture and manage government backed innovation incentives (think mission critical compliance and workflow, not a nice to have tool). When this category works, it tends to produce exactly what we want in a multibagger portfolio: sticky workflows, recurring usage, and expanding penetration as customers scale their innovation spend.

The market has pushed the stock down again, despite solid results. That is frustrating, but it is also where opportunity is created in small caps. Even more important, the management team has continued to buy shares. In our world, that matters. When insiders add in size during weakness, it is one of the cleanest signals that conviction is not just marketing.

Full trade details and the live portfolio are Founding Member only, since access to the Multibagger Portfolio is exclusive to that tier.

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Founding Member Portfolio Update

What we are doing:

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Portfolio action: We are removing InPost from our 2026 Portfolio and booking the position.

And yes emotionally, this one stings.

Because InPost was exactly the kind of rare European growth asset you want to own for years: a scaled network, improving unit economics, and a runway that could have produced a true public-market compounding story. Instead, it gets “solved” via takeout at a price that’s still below the IPO reference (IPO price was €16.00 per share).

So why sell if we think it’s a great business? Because once a company enters a takeover process, the investment stops being “quality compounding” and becomes “deal math.”

🧠 The key point: the return profile changed overnight

Before the announcement, our upside case was open-ended:

• more lockers, more density,

• better utilization,

• stronger network effects,

• improving profitability,

• and eventually, a rerating.

After the announcement, the upside is capped by the offer price. What matters now is:

• the spread to €15.60,

• the time to closing,

The press release lays out a long timetable: the offer memorandum is expected in Q2 2026, and the transaction is expected to close in H2 2026. And importantly, completion is subject to conditions, including a minimum acceptance level of at least 80% plus regulatory clearances and other customary conditions.

That is not our game. Our 2026 Portfolio is built for mispriced compounding, not for sitting in a long-dated tender process where your return becomes spread + calendar time.

Why this feels frustrating

Let’s call it what it is: it’s disappointing to lose a potential multibagger candidate at a price that doesn’t feel like “full value.”

Two facts make that feeling completely rational:

1. The offer is below the IPO price.
   InPost listed at €16.00 in January 2021, and the takeout is €15.60.
   That doesn’t automatically mean the offer is “cheap” (IPO prices are often set in optimistic regimes), but it does mean the public market never fully rewarded the long-duration thesis.

2. Strategic buyers tend to buy after multiple compression.
   The consortium is explicitly positioning this as a way to accelerate European out-of-home delivery growth, expand locker footprint, deepen consumer-centric digital solutions, and unlock growth with long-term capital behind it.
   In plain English: they believe this asset is more valuable under private ownership than the public market was willing to price.

This is the uncomfortable reality in European small caps: sometimes the public-market rerating never comes and the value gets crystallized by a strategic/private buyer instead.

Portfolio impact:

As of our latest portfolio snapshot, the position showed:

• Allocation: ~10.49%

• Unrealized gain: +46.53% (about +$410 on a ~$1,291 position value)

That’s exactly the profile we aim for: we owned the right asset, the market eventually recognized its strategic value, and the outcome is being monetized.

What happens next if you still hold?

Mechanically, the press release outlines the pathway:

• The consortium intends to launch a public offer with €15.60 cash per tendered share.

• The offer has a minimum acceptance of 80%.

• If they end up with 80% to <95%, there’s a post-closing structure described (demerger/liquidation pathway).

• If they reach ≥95%, they can initiate a statutory squeeze-out process.

Your broker will handle the tender mechanics once the offer is live (after the offer memorandum is published). The key is: from here, the stock’s behavior will be driven far more by deal updates than by quarterly business fundamentals.

I’ll be blunt: I would have preferred to keep InPost public and let it compound. The network asset is real, the model is strategically valuable, and this kind of infrastructure can mature into extraordinary long-term returns.

Disclaimer:

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the author’s opinions as of the date of publication. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. The author is not acting as your financial adviser and does not provide personalized investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should conduct your own research, verify all information independently, and consult qualified professionals regarding your individual circumstances before acting on any information contained herein. Investing involves substantial risk, including the risk of losing all or part of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any projections, forward-looking statements, targets, or estimates are not guaranteed and may change materially. Certain information may be obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The author and/or related parties may hold positions in the securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities at any time without notice. All investment decisions are made solely at your own risk.